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Let the Poor Breathe

By Halima Abdulazeez

It’s heart-wrenching to witness the disdain with which some political leaders view the poor, wishing they allowed the poor to breathe in reality. This narrative that people are poor because they are lazy is not only false but dangerously misleading. It serves as a convenient tool for those who benefit from the current system, allowing them to justify inequality and deflect attention from the true roots of poverty: systemic exploitation and the deliberate creation of economic hardship.

In Nigeria, poverty isn’t a reflection of individual shortcomings; it’s the direct consequence of a system designed to favour the wealthy elite at the expense of the working class. The accusation of “laziness” is a smokescreen, obscuring the stark reality that millions are trapped in a relentless cycle of survival, constantly struggling to meet their most basic needs.

As Abayomi Odunowo eloquently stated in an article for African Baobab 2024, the urgency of this situation is underscored by the fact that a significant portion of the population now lives on the precipice of despair, going through tonnes of challenges that relentlessly push them further into the abyss of poverty. This crisis is only exacerbated by the disturbing trend of ignoring the legitimate cries for help from fellow citizens. Such indifference breeds mistrust and cultivates hostility among communities. When pleas for assistance go unanswered, the vulnerable are labelled as needy and beggarly, further complicating their already dire circumstances. This cruel cycle of victimisation not only discredits those who genuinely wish to lend a helping hand but also perpetuates the deep-seated inequality that defines Nigerian society.

Too often, palliatives are touted as solutions. They are, in reality, mere political theatre, a cynical charade that mocks the average Nigerian and portrays their desperation as a thirst for handouts rather than a fundamental hunger for opportunity. We see men and women contorting themselves, risking their lives, to board crowded buses, grown men and women lapping themselves to reduce the excessive transport fares. A poignant message of resilience in the face of adversity. If the system were truly working, wouldn’t these individuals have better options, more dignified paths to pursue?

It’s easy to level accusations of a lack of dignity among the underprivileged. But where is the corresponding outrage over the unconscionably low wages that fall far below the standard cost of living? Where is the collective demand for policies that empower business owners to provide a real-time, living wage, supported by adequate funding and robust oversight?

Countless Nigerians grapple with stagnant salaries that fail to keep pace with the ever-rising cost of inflation. This cruel reality leaves families struggling to afford even the most basic necessities: a safe place to live, nutritious food on the table, and reliable transportation to work. The crushing weight of this constant financial insecurity takes an immense mental and physical toll, contributing to soaring rates of mental illness and debilitating physical ailments. This is not simply hardship; it’s a calculated assault on the well-being of a nation.

At its core, human dignity is rooted in the ability to provide a stable home, nutritious food, and decent clothing for one’s family, and to ensure personal well-being. When a system actively prevents individuals in weaponised poverty, transforming it into a tool for suppression against those who dissent or simply belong to marginalised communities. This abhorrent strategy is evident in the divide-and-rule tactics employed against labour unions and civil society organisations, silencing voices of dissent and hindering collective action. Even more egregious is the systemic refusal to pay wages that support a dignified, real-time minimum cost of living, effectively trapping millions in a cycle of perpetual deprivation.

The truth is undeniable, the system is rigged. Those at the top are actively benefiting from our collective hardship, perpetuating a cycle of inequality that undermines society. We seek more than fleeting handouts; we demand the opportunity to thrive, to build a better future for ourselves and our children.

It’s time we unite to address the roots of this crisis and work collectively towards solutions. The time for complacency is over. We must demand accountability from our leaders, challenge the narratives that perpetuate inequality, and work together to create a Nigeria where everyone has the opportunity to live a life of dignity, purpose, and prosperity. The choice is ours: continue down the path of escalating inequality, or forge a new path towards a just and equitable society for all.

For real this time, let the Poor Breathe

Halima Abdulazeez is a poet and the author of the poetry collection “Soul Rants: A Journey from Within.” She is the Communication Officer at the Caprecon Foundation, the Treasurer of PEN International, the Nigerian Centre, and she resides in Lagos.

Contact: +234-8034816865 (mailt.

umuhfaisal@gmail.com

OF ROYALS AND UNROYAL ENTANGLEMENTS

By Tunde Olusunle

Royalty enjoyed tremendous reverence when my generation was growing up. As a schoolboy in Benin City those days, the Oba savoured profound reverence and conjured trepidation amongst his subjects. He was and still is introduced with the prefix Omo N’Oba N’Edo Uku Akpolokpolo. Much as this simply means “His Royal Majesty, the Oba of Benin,” it is without doubt, a jarring mouthful. He is regarded as sole emissary of the supreme deity and possibly a god in his own right, most probably consecrated by cosmic consent. Oba Akenzua II was on the throne in my teenage days in Benin City. He loomed large in the public consciousness who barely caught a glimpse of him anywhere. The wholesale mythification of his office was such that his name was conjured to serve as warning and deterrent to potential rabble rousers. The now popular phrase, You go see Oba was added to day-to-day, now globalised conversational lexicon in my time. It served as deterrent to mischief and errant conduct. The lawless were thus admonished on circumspection, lest they had to go through the labyrinthine motions of seeking justice or redress before a barely ever seen Oba.

I equally keenly followed the trajectory of the immediate past Ooni of Ife, Oba Okunade Sijuwade, Olubuse II. Immensely affluent, urbane and classy, he brought elan, style and panache to bear on his office. He was famous for his striking regalia, typically complemented by corresponding accessories and adornments. He breathed style and elegance. The very popular Forbes magazine indeed once rated Ooni Olubuse as the “third richest royal in Africa” in his time. I was privileged to meet him a few times during his lifetime. I was still a student and member of one of our departmental students associations in school when I had the first encounter with him. Despite his impeccable proficiency in the English language, Oba Sijuwade elected to speak Yoruba during most of his engagements. This linguistic preference reinforced the belief that he was truly the mouthpiece of the gods and ancestors. There was always, ever a competent interpreter by his side, usually his long-serving Press Secretary, Funmilola Olorunnisola, himself a ranking Chief of Ile-Ife. The Ooni conveyed his thoughts and messages through him to his guests and audiences.

Contemporary royals have dominated the news in recent days and weeks. The manifest unseemly conduct of some of them, is totally at variance with their standings and statuses as traditional rulers. Indeed, their actions in many instances have unwittingly whittled down the historical dignity of the exalted stools they occupy, in the catacombs of otherwise revered palaces. Such custodians of tradition have unknowingly transposed their venerated seats, to the full glare of the public, the marketplace. From Ipetumodu to, Ibadan, to Oyo and to Katsina, in Osun, Oyo and Katsina states respectively, presumed royals have shown up in ways and manners which demean and diminish their offices. Such wholesome devaluation is of necessity impacting the very essence of the institution of natural rulership, passed down from ages and aeons.

The Apetu of Ipetumodu, Oba Joseph Oloyede, was arrested by United States security early 2024 for his role in obtaining COVID-19 relief funds estimated at $4.2million, fraudulently. While his subjects anticipated the return of their king from what was supposed to be a routine visit to the US, Oloyede had been answering charges before Justice Christopher Boyko, of the US District Court of Ohio. He reportedly colluded with a certain Edward Oluwasanmi, a Nigerian-American clergyman, with whom he defrauded the US system of resources designated as buffer for US small businesses and nonprofit organisations experiencing pandemic-related revenue losses. Court documents reportedly referenced falsified applications for “Paycheck Protection Programme Loans and Economic Injury Disaster Loans, under the US Coronavirus Air, Relief and Economic Recovery Act” submitted by Oloyede and Oluwasanmi.

Both men deployed fake tax and wage documents to secure funds intended to help struggling businesses keep afloat during the COVID-19 plague. Oloyede received about half of the $4.2million, scammed by him and his compatriot, Oluwasanmi. He reportedly invested his portion of the heist in real estate in the US. Oloyede by the way, was installed the Oba of his community in 2019. His profile as a travelled and affluent person counted amongst other considerations for the 62-year old monarch. His present engagement with the US justice system may yet torchlight other probable underhand financial dealings in the course of his long sojourn in the country in which earned him a residency. This is as his subjects remain in shock and bewilderment over such unsavoury revelations concerning a leader they once exalted.

The Ooni of Ife, Oba Adeyeye Enitan Ogunwusi, the Ojaja II, recently had a spat with the Alaafin of Oyo, Oba Abimbola Owoade. at an event in Ibadan. Wife of the President, Oluremi Tinubu was guest of the Oyo State Government and both monarchs were invited to the programme. As the Ooni made his way to his seat, every traditional ruler on his route honoured him by rising to welcome him. The Alaafin, however, refused to rise up, even as he shook hands with the Ooni from his seating position. There is a long history about the rivalry for preeminence between the Alaafin and the Ooni. It was partially resolved when the administration of President Ibrahim Babangida created two states, Oyo and Osun, out of the erstwhile Oyo State. Both rulers were venerated as the Numero Uno monarchs in the various states. As the Ibadan incident revealed, however, animosity abounds between the Ooni who is 50, and the Alaafin who is 49, beyond the historical acrimony. A more recent reason has been adduced for the beef between both royals.

Decades ago, a US-based Nigerian of Yoruba descent, Efuntola Oseijeman Adelabu Adefummi, conceived of a “Yoruba village” to serve as a melting pot for Yorubas in the US. It was supposed to be a “home away from home” where the Yoruba essence will be celebrated. This vision berthed the Oyotunji African Village located in Beaufort County, South Carolina, in 1970. Efuntola Adefunmi the visioner was installed Oba of the “village.” Ooni Ojaja has in the past, been requested by the leadership of Oyotunji to mediate during disputes and conflicts plaguing the village and he had always willingly sent emissaries. It has been suggested that Alaafin Owoade has been wrongfully briefed that his rulership of Oyo, encompasses Oyotunji which in reality is an address for all Yorubas from Nigeria, Benin Republic, Togo, Brazil and so on. This has been adduced as probable reason for the grouse between both men.

A recent incident where one Chief Lukman Ojora Arounfale, the Baba Oba of Oyotunji African Village was allegedly assaulted in the Alaafin’s palace on the orders of the king, lends credence to the bile between him and the Ooni. The scenario which played out on Thursday April 17, 2025, was linked to the bitterness between the Alaafin and the Ooni. It fits the narrative that the Alaafin in reality conceives of Oyotunji as a diaspora extension of his kingdom. Chief Lukman Atounfale, we are told, died from injuries he sustained in the brutal attack on him and his wife, in the Alaafin’s abode in Oyo. Such are the dimensions of controversies which have trailed the teething weeks and months of the reign of Alaafin Owoade who was only installed in January 2025, by Governor Makinde.

Overzealous palace guards, dogarai, working for the Emir of Katsina, Abdulmumini Kabir Usman last weekend, broke the glass entrance into the Katsina home of Dikko Radda, Governor of the state. Radda had given out one of his daughters in marriage earlier that day and was hosting dignitaries including President Bola Tinubu to a reception at his address. State protocol and security regulations prescribe that once the President or guest-in-chief is already seated at a function, late comers are shut out. It was bad enough that Emir Kabir Usman came long after the nation’s chief executive was already settled. It was worse that his fatawa dared to bring down a section of the home of the chief host of the President. It was an utterly disrespectful act which underlined the operational manual in effect in the palace of the Emir. Let’s hope the Emir has sent pertinent formal apologies to Tinubu and Radda, principally.

At every opportunity, traditional rulers are known to have canvassed specific roles for themselves in the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. This seems plausible given their proximity to the mass of Nigerians especially in the distant hinterlands and deep recesses of our vast national space. Against the backdrop of reported misuse of authority which we recently gleaned in the palace of the Alaafin, can our royals be trusted to manage gazetted authority? Two weeks after the assault and subsequent demise of Lukman Ojora Arounfale which was ascribed to Alaafin Owoade, we are yet to read a rejoinder. Wouldn’t aides of natural rulers like Dr Kabir Usman of the Katsina emirate, incorporate bulldozers in the vehicular convoy of their Principal as they journey through the emirate? The roofs of the homes of many of the Emir’s subjects who are in the quietude of their sanctuaries, may just be decapitated for not being on the streets paying obeisance to the king?

Our royals must reinvent themselves and re-perspectivise their offices. They are not “Highnesses” and “Majesties” simply for personal ennoblement. Their positions and honorifics bear immense relevance to the history and sociocultural identities of our diverse peoples. The onus is on them to restore relevance and reverence to our traditional institutions in a global sense. It is their responsibility to protect and preserve our cultures from adulteration, abuse and extinction. We should not pass down diminished and dismembered histories, narratives and beliefs, to successor generations.

Tunde Olusunle, PhD, Fellow of the Association of Nigerian Authors, (FANA), teaches Creative Writing at the University of Abuja

DANIEL BWALA Delivering Policy Communication

Daniel Bwala had many dreams as a young man. He once thought of playing professional football, securing a place in the national team and eventually trading tackles on foreign turfs with a football club abroad. As lofty as that ambition was, it never turned into a reality. At one point, he wanted to study medical law at the Masters level because he felt medical negligence is a pandemic in Nigeria.

Of all his aspirations, public speaking and advocacy became his reputation, earning him recognition and accolades in the legal, media and political fields. There were pointers earlier that he was going to toe this path. As a young man, Bwala rarely conceded to any allegation anytime he and his siblings got into trouble with their parents. He always insisted on explaining his conduct, which frequently led to a favourable outcome as he made himself clear. Such was the strength of his convictions and arguments that his late father once proclaimed that he, Bwala, would be useless if he didn’t become a lawyer.

“I was always an advocate of the rights of people,” he shared during a recent encounter. “Afterwards, I gave my life to Christ, became born again and later a preacher; this endeavour of preaching fine-tuned my advocacy skills and gave me the passion for studying law.”Today, Bwala is the Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Media and Policy Communications. Prior to that, he was the spokesperson of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) 2023 presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar.Born in Bama Local Government Area of Borno State, Bwala hails from Gwaski in Hawul LGA. His father was a retired military officer and his mother a businesswoman.

“This led me to win a national law clinic competition where selected top law clinic universities in the country and campuses of the Nigerian Law School participated,” he continued.“I led my colleague Aminu Gamawa, who is now Dr. Aminu Gamawa, Chief of Staff to the Governor of Bauchi State. In the national competition, we defeated universities and even Nigerian Law School campuses to emerge winners and went on to represent Nigeria and Africa at the International Client Counselling Competition hosted by Cardiff University, UK. On the international stage, we defeated the USA, Canada, and Scotland but fell short of New Zealand. We emerged runner-up at the international finals.”Bwala started gaining recognition for public speaking during his university days. Many instances announced him on the big stage, but one that readily came to mind as he attempted the question was when he and his team won the national competition on client counselling.

“It was aired all over the nation and abroad ahead of our participation in the international finals. I started to get invites for interviews locally and internationally, including requests from universities abroad to send articles in the related field.”Before setting up his own firm, Bwala & Co (Crystal Chambers), the international motivational speaker and author, worked for the law firm JK Gadzama LLP.“I learned the rudiments of law, research and courtroom advocacy there. I worked there for five years before setting up my law firm Bwala & Co (Crystal Chambers),” he said.

“In those days in England,” Bwala recounted, “after you are admitted to practice, you are required to spend at least five years doing pupil-age before you can set up your law firm. Even though that is not the case anymore, I, however, told myself that I would work for five years and then proceed to establish my law firm. Thankfully, I was able to do just that.”Part of this decision may have stemmed from the influential figures in his life. They include Bishop David Oyedepo, founder of Living Faith Church, better known as Winners Chapel, whom he said influenced his life to a large extent. “I listened to his teachings, which were basically spiritual, but also had a lot of motivation around career, knowledge, self-esteem, etc.”

In his legal profession, he learnt discipline and diligence from his former employer Chief JK Gadzama, SAN.“I learned the business of law, diligence and timing,” he said. “I recall when I started work with his law firm, we reported at 8am and closed at 11pm daily; at weekends, we reported at 4pm and closed at 10pm. I developed my research skills working with Chief Gadzama, SAN. During my first month at his chambers, fresh off of a call to the bar, he ensured I appeared in all the superior courts of record. This meant that in the first month, I appeared in the High Court, Court of Appeal and Supreme Court. As Principal of the chambers, he personally ensured the allocation of counsel in chambers to the cause list. God bless Gadzama, SAN.”

Retired DIG Ali Eye Nasarawa South Senatorial District

By Ebinum Samuel

A fomer topnotcher of the Nigeria Police Force, NPF, Mohammed Ari Ali, who is the immidiate past Deputy Inspector -general of Police, DIG, in charge of Operations of the police has joined the race for Senatorial seat.
Ali, from Nasarawa state is contesting the Nasarawa South Senatorial District under the unbrella of All Progressives Congress, APC.
Popularly known as “Mr Philosopher” by police officers and members of the Fourth Estate of the Realm, Ali, at various times served in different police formations in Lagos and other states before his meritorious retirement from the force few weeks ago.


The aspirant known to be one of the operational czars in the force while in service, had served in Lagos as the Divisional Police Officer in charge of Denton and Apapa police stations respectively. He was also the Area Commander in charge of Area B with headquarters in Apapa. Not left out, he was at a time the Assisant and Deputy Commissioner of Police in charge of Lagos state police Command.


On his elevation to the rank of commissioner of police, he was deployed to Delta state police command where he rooted out rampaging kidnappers and gun men in 2023.
Ali has also served as the Assistant Inspector-general of Police, AIG in charge of zone 1 (Kano) and 2 (Lagos) respectively before his promotion to DIG rank last year.
Ali confirmed his political aspiration.He said “Just to obey my people’s call to serve them once again in my little way”

Niger gov donates N50m to Living Faith Church, promises road construction

Niger State Governor, Mohammed Umaru Bago, has donated N50 million to the Living Faith Church Worldwide and pledged to build a road network within the church premises in Minna.

The announcement was made on Sunday during the church’s 44th anniversary celebration at its state headquarters in Gbaiko, Minna.

Speaking at the event, Governor Bago emphasized the need for collaboration among government, parents, and religious organizations to restore family values, which he said were in decline. “We must work together to rebuild our society’s moral fabric,” he said during the anniversary gathering at the church auditorium.

The governor expressed concern over the erosion of family values, attributing it to rising intolerance and other societal challenges. He congratulated the Living Faith Church on its 44-year milestone and assured the congregation of his administration’s ongoing support for the church and Christendom.

Bago encouraged the church to support his government’s agricultural drive by setting up a farm, and called for continued prayers as his administration pursues the vision of a “New Niger.” He reaffirmed both his N50 million donation and his commitment to constructing the road network within the church grounds.

In his remarks, the Resident Pastor of Living Faith Church, Minna, Pastor Anso John Dominion, thanked the governor for attending the celebration and lauded his administration’s efforts toward realizing the “New Niger” agenda through infrastructure and agriculture.

The pastor added, “We assure the ‘farmer Governor’ of our continuous prayers for the success of all your developmental initiatives, which will bring transformation to lives and livelihoods.”

Other dignitaries, including the Deputy Speaker of the Niger State House of Assembly, Mrs. Afiniki Dauda; the Special Adviser to the Governor on Public-Private Partnerships, Mr. Jonathan Vatsa; and the Governor’s Coordinator on Christian Affairs, Lawrence Moh’d Isa, also delivered goodwill messages. They praised Governor Bago’s consistent support for the Christian community and pledged their backing for his policies aimed at improving the state.

The event featured presentations to the governor from the Living Faith Church and the Christian community in appreciation of his support. An appeal was also made for the construction of a Christian Centre on land owned by the Niger State chapter of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN).

Governor Bago was accompanied by members of the State Executive Council and other senior officials to the celebration.

2027: Atiku, Obi ready to work together, says ex-VP’s ally

An associate of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has revealed that his principal is willing to work with the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, Peter Obi, in a bid to unseat President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 general elections.Atiku, who emerged second in the 2023 presidential election with 6,984,520 votes, has consistently expressed his resolve to lead a formidable opposition capable of challenging the All Progressives Congress in the next electoral cycle.President Tinubu’s path to a second term appears increasingly fraught, with mounting opposition not only from rival parties but also from disenchanted figures within the APC.Notable among these are former Attorney General Abubakar Malami and ex-Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal.

Also, former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai recently renounced his APC membership, criticised the Tinubu administration, and joined the Social Democratic Party.He has since called on like-minded Nigerians to unite in ousting the APC in 2027.El-Rufai’s move has sparked fresh speculation of a broad political realignment, with sources close to Atiku suggesting that behind-the-scenes coalition talks are gaining momentum.Speaking exclusively to The PUNCH, an associate of Atiku who pleaded anonymity because “It is too early to reveal much for now,” said the two opposition figures, having realised that they need each other to realise their dream of good governance in the country, have resolved to work together.“There is no doubt that they have learned their lessons and are ready to work together. They now realise that to defeat Tinubu, they cannot go it alone,” the source said.“Data from the 2023 election shows Atiku won in 12 states with over six million votes, while Obi claimed 11 states and the Federal Capital Territory.Combined, their votes would have clearly surpassed Tinubu’s eight-plus million. That’s why serious meetings are already ongoing, though quietly.”The source further accused President Tinubu of playing divisive politics, claiming that such tactics contributed to El-Rufai’s defection.“Tinubu is attempting to play the North against the South, assuming he can build a winning coalition. But he’s mistaken — that’s part of why El-Rufai left.”‘LP, PDP can’t defeat Tinubu’But the Director-General of The Progressive Institute, Dr. Lanre Adebayo, has asserted that no opposition party currently possesses the strength or structure to defeat the All Progressives Congress or President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 general elections.Adebayo made the remark on Thursday during a courtesy visit to the National Assembly, where he briefed the Deputy President of the Senate, Senator Jibrin Barau, on the institute’s progress and ongoing activities.

The Progressive Institute is a policy think tank established by the APC to groom young Nigerian leaders and strengthen democratic ideals within the ruling party.“2027 is very close,” Adebayo said. “When you look at the Nigerian political environment now, I don’t think we have a party that can challenge the APC. But we must continue working hard to preserve the leadership God has given us.”He added that the institute’s current efforts are focused on taking stock of the APC’s performance over the last two years, as part of a national project to ensure the party remains strong and resilient.“We are working under the leadership of Senator Jibrin to ensure that the APC continues to lead and set the direction for the country’s future,” he said.In his remarks, Deputy Senate President Jibrin Barau expressed satisfaction with the institute’s progress and lauded the innovative direction being championed by the party’s leadership.

NNPP, ADC on coalition Meanwhile, the New Nigeria People’s Party has declared its openness to a coalition aimed at ending Tinubu’s presidency in 2027.However, it insisted any alliance must align with its vision for good governance.Speaking to The PUNCH, NNPP’s National Publicity Secretary, Ladipo Johnson, revealed that the party had championed coalition talks since after the 2023 elections.“From the beginning, we said we are open to discussions with individuals and political parties toward 2027. That remains our position,” Johnson said.However, he emphasised that while the NNPP is open to partnerships, it would not accept a merger that strips the party of its identity.“Nigerians will soon hear more about our engagements. We remain NNPP. All options are on the table, but we won’t lose our identity.”Johnson also signaled that the party would begin publicly assessing the Tinubu administration after it marks two years in office on May 29.Similarly, the National Chairman of the African Democratic Congress, Ralph Nwosu, welcomed coalition efforts, stressing that integrity and values must guide any alliance.“Any coalition rooted in dignity, integrity, and inclusion is worth supporting.

If this proposed coalition aligns with those ideals, ADC will be part of it,” he said.Nwosu criticised the Tinubu administration for promoting division, and also took aim at former Delta State Governor Ifeanyi Okowa for citing “central government benefits” as justification for defecting to the APC.“If this is the kind of democracy our leaders are advocating, it is shameful and irresponsible,” he said. “Elected leaders in developed countries talk development, not politics.”Similarly, the Young Progressive Party expressed interest in a broad-based alliance but warned that it must not simply be a platform for recycled elites.YPP’s National Publicity Secretary, Wale Egbeola-Martins, stated:“The idea of a grand coalition led by Atiku, El-Rufai, or Babachir Lawal acknowledges the need for change. But it must go beyond rebranding old faces.”He urged elder politicians to consider stepping aside for fresh leadership:“Nigerians are yearning for new, competent leaders. If this coalition is to succeed, some of the current figureheads must be ready to jettison personal ambition.”Egbeola-Martins also warned against the risks of growing defections to the APC, arguing that a drift toward a one-party state would undermine democracy.“The wave of defections to APC is concerning. It weakens checks and balances and endangers political pluralism,” he said.

“Our democracy thrives on ideological diversity and a robust opposition.”

Who cares about the workers’ welfare?

By Ayo Oyoze Baje

Quote ” Do not muzzle an ox while it is treading out the grain, for as the Scripture says, ‘ the worker deserves his wages'”- Timothy 5 vs 18 ( The Holy Bible )

The celebration of the annual Worker’s Day on the 1st of May, 2025 has come and gone, as usual with the well crafted promises from the political leaders to cater for their welfare. Yet, the painful reality is that of months of unpaid salaries of the seventy thousand (N70,000 ) minimum wage across several states of the country. It would be recalled that yours truly raised a timely alarm over unpaid workers’ salaries in 23 out of the 36 states, through an opinion essay as severally published in the media on June 22, 2015. The aim was to bring to the front burner the importance and imperative of meeting the workers’ welfare, as expected. The article was titled: ‘ The National Shame of Unpaid Salaries ‘. It was also meant to alert the state governors on the critical parts played by the workers, as catalysts who drive government’s policies, at all levels.The neglect or delay in the payment of their salaries and other emoluments is therefore, considered not only absurd but an act of sheer wickedness on the part of the paymasters, who are living large on our common patrimony.In the light of the above -stated it is worrisome that some ten years later, precisely in April 2025 the piece of trending news is the lamentation on the part of the National President of Nigerian Union of Local Government Employees ( NULGE ) that as many as 20 states are yet to implement the payment of N70,000 minimum wage for local government workers and primary school teachers! Can you imagine that under the prevailing harsh economic situation in the country? How do such governors expect the workers to cope with the highest inflation rate of over 28% with the spin – off effects on the costs of transportation, food items, electricity tariff, school fees, rent and healthcare delivery?Top amongst the states listed are Yobe, Gombe, Zamfara, Kaduna, Imo, Ebonyo, Cross River, Borno and the Federal Capital Territory FCT, Abuja.

Yet, when Mister President signed the Minimum Wage Act, 2024 into law on July 29, 2024 he urged the states to commence the implementation of the new minimum wage. Amongst the states that have so far complied with the directive are Lagos,Rivers, Bayelsa, Enugu, Niger and Akwa Ibom. Others include Adamawa, Anambra,Jigawa, Gombe, Ogun,Kebbi,Ondo and Kogi. This sad situation sparks off some burning questions.For instance, Nigerians deserve to know what has happened to the trillions in naira of the so called monthly allocation from the Federation Account to the states since July of the previous year when the payment of the minimum wage was empowered by the Act? It would be recalled that as at September 2024 a total of the humongous sum of N1.203 trillion was shared to the three tiers of government as their part of the Federation Account for the month of August, 2024 from a total of N2.278 trillion. That was according to the Minister of Finance and the Coordinating Minister of the Economy,Wale who was at the meeting of the Federation Account Allocation Committee ( FAAC ).

What about their state’s Internally Generated Revenue ( IGR )? Or there was none of such? What massive capital projects did they embark upon that must have led to the sudden cash squeeze? What magic wand did the 16 other states that have paid their workers the minimum wage wave to save the workers from the mass misery in the country?Credible answers to these important questions have become necessary because leadership is all about the enthronement of the key element of trust. Beside that is the need for such a leader to put on his thinking cap on while prioritizing the needs of the led majority of people. And that should always dovetail to their welfare. In fact, the recurring and scandalous issue of unpaid salaries has exposed the wrongs inherent in our current democratic system and structure. As one of highlighted a decade ago; ” The reward and payment structure in our dysfunctional polity is obscenely skewed in favour of political office holders. That explains why the ambition of the average Nigerian politician to mount the pedestal of power is about harnessing as much of the public money as possible.

Added to the pains of unpaid salaries to the current workers is that of the aged and sick retirees yet to be paid their terminal benefits. While some of them are left to queue for hours on end to be paid the insulting peanuts, others are either battling with debilitating diseases such as arthritis, glaucoma, diabetes, and cancer others have long died leaving members of their families stewing in misery and deprivation.It would the states and the nation at large a world of good to ensure that the workers are paid their salaries and allowances as at when due. Doing so would bolster their confidence in the state and bolster their confidence to sacrifice their sweat to oil the engine of socio-economic development. Without them seeing to the day-to-day operations of state there would be no tax payers money to pilfer and pillage. As consistently highlighted it is a collective insult on the psyche and souls of the workers to be treated as slaves in a God – blessed country where the leaders preach but refuse to practise an egalitarian society of equity and justice. The best way forward out of recurring issue of unpaid salaries is to glean lasting lessons from African countries with the highest paid workers such as Morocco, South Africa, Tunisia and Kenya where the average monthly salaries stand at $2,031, $2,026, $1,348 and $1,219 in that order. Apart from the high pay packages the payment of salaries is of utmost priority to the leaders. This boosts the moral confidence of such workers to the leaders, prompting them to do their best. Also, it is unheard of in those countries to talk about the Federation Account. Over there, the state governors do not go cap-in-hand to the federal centre to share state funds on monthly basis. Rather, they are allowed to look inwards to generate their funds for payments of monthly dues to the workers and to run their governments.The call for a holistic restructuring of the country with true fiscal federalism through which the states or regions raise funds for their needs by controlling their God- given resources has therefore ,become an imperative to drive Nigeria forward. That was how it played out in this same country back in the Sixties such that the Chief Obafemi Awolowo – led Western Region achieved Free Education, constructed good,access roads, established agricultural centres as the base for the industrialization with revenues from cocoa. So it was for the Dr. Michael Okpara -led Eastern Region that had the fastest developing economy amongst the Commonwealth group of nations with revenues from oil palm and rubber.And the Sir Ahmadu Bello – led Northern Region boosted their economy with revenues from cotton, hides and skin and of course, the groundnut pyramids.

One hopes, and fervently too that all these would serve as food-for-thought for the Bola Tinubu-led government to muster the political will to do the needful while time lasts.

AS WIKE PREPARES FOR MAY 29

By Tunde Olusunle

Three years ago, I wrote a piece which I titled Capitol of the Dank, Dark, Dirty and Dangerous. It was my personal assessment of notable, multisectoral degeneration in Abuja, Nigeria’s capital city, which is supposed to be Africa’s showpiece to the world. Muhammadu Buhari was President within the period and Mohammed Bello, Minister of the Federal Capital Territory Administration, (FCTA). Permanent power outages in the territory foisted a regime of disturbing darkness. Streets, roads, boulevards, closes were strewn with filth and garbage, gifting parts of the territory unusual stench and smell. Muggers reigned unchecked around and about the city, emerging from unknown hideouts to harass drivers at traffic lights fleecing them of valuables, particularly at nightfall. They targeted telephones and similar devices and would simply disappear into the wombs of darkening night. Should your vehicle malfunction in sections of the capital area especially in lonely stretches, criminals lurking in unsuspecting crevices sprang out to attack innocent victims and fleece them of their belongings.

The quantum vandalism visited on multibillion naira by scroungers better known in these parts as baba’n bola, “kings of dump sites,” equally evoked concern. Prized metal covers of service ducts on our street were wilfully stolen by these vagrants, a practice which still subsists. The gaping holes continue to leave commuters at the mercy of road crashes. Metal poles bearing illumination lights were not spared. They ended up as scraps in panteka markets where they are traded at our collective expense. Not forgetting the wholesale recalibration of the otherwise eye-catching aesthetics of Abuja, into a functional ranch by Fulani herders. Herds of cattle were on daily excursions across the city till today. They enjoyed primary “right of way,” over and above commuters, who were also doomed to contend with the lacquer of cattle dung, routinely splashed on city ways. Such was the basal levels to which our beautiful Abuja was dragged in that dispensation.

Today, the most casual of Abuja residents or fleeting guests would not but notice ongoing works in the city’s landscape. Road construction sites buzz with activity in select locations, even as concrete bridges are being launched across major roads. These will facilitate better commuter experiences for road users in the immediate future. Structures are sprouting in certain zones in the city and have been activated as public conveniences. The initiative aims to address a critical, probable omission in the Abuja masterplan. The absence of dedicated spaces as car parks across Abuja which has fuelled illegal loading bays across the city is another omission which will have to be creatively addressed. Kerbs and stone-pitching are being introduced in certain areas of the city’s road networks, even as hedges are being built around designated spaces for potential greening, in certain areas.

FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike without doubt, brought with him to his present brief, the dynamism which characterised his years as Governor of the oil-blessed Rivers State. His profile evidently accentuated public expectations when he was named chaperone of the FCT by President Bola Tinubu in August 2023. It needs no restating that Wike covets the limelight. Many would be familiar with his regular live telecast “state of the nation’s interviews” which he periodically hosts. Reminds of Fela Anikulapo-Kuti’s yabis sessions at his famous performance arena, the Shrine, in the good old Lagos. Wike sits on a grand sofa, either in the comfort of his living room, or in the breezy greenery of the lawns in his house, surrounded by a number of journalists. He hurls invectives at his adversaries, real or imagined, some of which actually border on libel and slander, in the name of discussing Nigerian politics.

As Governor of Rivers State, Wike routinely drew up timetables for the formal inauguration of projects executed by his administration. Such programmes often stretched into several days and weeks. He invited statesmen and political bigwigs sometimes across party lines to commission projects. Every such event was telecast real time on the terrestrial platforms of multiple television stations for global viewership. He replicated the practice when he got the President, on the first anniversary of his inauguration in May 2024, to perform the ceremonial tape-cutting of some projects across the capital city.

Yet another Democracy Day is just weeks away. Wike has been moving around the FCT with his very grandiose convoy of sleek automobiles, which could be misconstrued as being in direct contest with that of the President, in recent weeks. The taste of our leaders for extravagant consumption and obscene exhibitionism, is incompatible with our aggregate, pitiably low developmental indices on many counts. The FCT Minister is readying some projects executed by his ministry for commissioning by President Tinubu, come May 29, 2025. Predictably, as part of the preparations, select roads and avenues will wear fresh markings. Flags and buntings will be hoisted around Abuja. Laudable as these are, one is duty-bound to call the attention of the FCT helmsman to subsisting and worrying developments in Abuja as we speak. We shouldn’t be gloss-dressing the exterior of a structure, which indeed is internally decrepit and degenerate. From what one sees as one commutes around and across the city, the level of cleanliness and sanitary condition of Abuja has dropped remarkably.

Garbage receptacles in various neighborhoods overflow, Abuja streets strewn with cellophane sachets, plastic bags and all manner of debris. Instances are noticeable even within the city centre. While this is bad enough during weekdays when few garbage trucks are sighted in parts of Abuja, it is indeed worse at the weekends. There has been a suggestion that since Minister Wike is traditionally engrossed with politicking in Rivers State at the weekends, and more recently in neighbouring Bayelsa State, the absence of governance those few days of minimum governance should be overlooked. Open and covered drains are clogged by sand, silt and sundry waste. Sewers have ruptured in several districts and zones, streaming to streets, assailing the nostrils and impairing the health of residents. Despite recent recourse to solar lighting, illumination of the city remains very poor. Dark, uncertain stretches can even be noticed on the major gateway into Abuja, the airport road.

Criminal activities including car theft, kidnapping and killings, hitherto rarities in the FCT, have become recurrent. It must have embarrassed the Office of the National Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu to no end, that a truck in the inventory of his office was stolen on the streets of Abuja earlier this month, minutes after its occupant stepped out to observe the juma’at service, Friday April 12, 2025! The clear absence of defined, structured parking areas for the ever growing city, the unavailability of structured “pick and drop” zones for public transportation contributes tremendously to avoidable traffic snarls in the capital. This reality needs to be confronted with every ingenuity to impact the functional showpiece we envision of Abuja.

Structures in public schools in Abuja are mostly substandard, unfit for teaching and learning. It would seem in many instances, that the builders of the primordial structures, shortchanged the system on account of the unpardonably shoddy jobs they executed. The buildings have since unravelled and become largely inimical to habitation and studying. With the onset of the rains, structures in many such institutions could be fundamentally affected and students displaced in instances. And there seems to be no resource provision for school heads to take initiative for palliative repairs remediation. The red-tapism en route such good intentions, can only be imagined.

For all the verve and boisterousness with which Wike settled into his job, it was expected that the menace, the eyesore constituted by herds of cattle straddling arrogantly through the capital, popularised during the Muhammadu Buhari presidency, would by now have been decisively addressed. Camels and horses are also on free range in parts of Abuja. Riding in the same car with a top officer friend who works in the security services, he posed the question to me: “I’ve honestly tried to understand this subsisting trend. Is it that the quality of vegetation consumed by cattle in the city is better than what is obtainable on the outskirts? I just don’t understand,” he said rhetorically.

Just a fortnight ago, the Mayor of Kumasi, a Ghanaian city, Richard Ofori-Agyemang Boadi, warned cattle rearers to confine their animals, or risk losing them. His call has received applause even from cattle businessmen. Kumasi, by the way is not the capital city of Ghana. On account of our failures and frailties, our country indeed has become laughing stock amongst brother countries. The Ghanaian press profiles our country as a “big for nothing giant of Africa,” whose nationals continue to flee their country in bids to find fulfilment elsewhere. Our failure in the simple task of maintaining the seat of government in our country questions our seriousness as a country. Where then lies our capacity to interrogate the bigger issues of insecurity, inflation and economic hardship and the free fall of our currency? Abuja which used to be Africa’s prime conference destination during the Olusegun Obasanjo/Atiku Abubakar government, has long lost its place. Sandton, Johannesburg in South Africa; Cairo in Egypt; Nairobi in Kenya, and even Kigali in Rwanda have since torpedoed our extant self-aggrandisement.

The papering and surfacing of parts of the FCT nonetheless, Wike still has a lot to chew on his plate. When will the FCTA install CCTV cameras across the territory, beginning from the city? Babajide Sanwo-Olu’s Lagos State, has led the way. The deployment of such simple technology is imperative for policing and securing of the seat of federal administration. When will Wike’s FCTA procure and install waste processing technology and equipment, to be deployed in designated parts of the territory? Modern waste management systems encourage the sustainable conversion of waste to wealth. When will areas contiguous to the concentric circle of the capital city, receive desired attention? When will the rocky Mpape district, and sub-urban communities like Lokogoma, Apo-Tyafi, Okanje, Kabusa, Pyakassa, Kuje, Gaube, Byazin, Bwari, Nyanya, and similar communities, catch a whiff of infrastructural modernity? These are strands of the FCT which bear mammoth population burdens and deserve life-improving facilities and amenities. These and several other districts and departments of the FCT behemoth, deserve and eagerly await Wike’s attention.

Tunde Olusunle, PhD, Fellow of the Association of Nigerian Authors, (FANA), is an Adjunct Professor of Creative Writing at the University of Abuja

COME QUICK, 2027

By Tunde Olusunle

I have taken liberties to somewhat adapt the title of the prophetic poem, *Come Thunder,* written by Christopher Okigbo, one of Nigeria’s most talented first generation poets, as title of this piece. Okigbo, a contemporary of the Chinua Achebes, Wole Soyinkas, John Pepper Bekederemo-Clarks, wrote the highly prophetic poem at the time, which was concretely validated by latter day developments. Okigbo’s piece of art, undertook a dispassionate view of Nigeria’s sociopolitical turmoil at the time and predicted a rancourous denouement. Lightning and thunder, two fearsome, natural phenomena famous for leaving trails of blood, death and destruction, Okigbo predicted, would characterise the coming *Tsunami.* Okigbo had barely dropped his pen after writing *Come Thunder,* than Nigeria degenerated into fractious civil war. This was triggered by the resolve of the country’s contemporary South East and adjoining territories, to secede from the country.

The larger Nigeria would also not subscribe to such a move. The secessionists had indeed christened the territory they desired to appropriate, as the *Republic of Biafra.* That strife validated Okigbo’s clairvoyance to the very letter. A zealous Okigbo enlisted to fight on the side of *Biafra* wherein lay his birthplace and homeland. Sadly, he died in battle in the same 1967 when he wrote *Come Thunder.* No election, since I became a politically conscious Nigerian adult, has been as frenzied and talked about as the forthcoming 2027 presidential election. Yes it is almost two years away but the “flag-off,” that is bringing it to the front burner of fervid public conversation, was instantiated just months into the life of the Bola Tinubu presidency. A thanksgiving service held in honour of Barry Mpigi, Senator representing Rivers South East in February 2024, nine months into the administration of President Bola Tinubu, was the forum where the subject was first broached. Armed with a job and an address as reward for undermining his bona-fide political party, the Peoples Democratic Party, (PDP), in the 2023 presidential election, Nyesom Wike the truculent overseer of the Federal Capital Territory Administration, (FCTA), blew the bugle at the event.

Those who know Wike very well, know that he suffers the “microphone disease.” It is an affliction manifested in the inability of microphone-wielders to simply be pointed and laconic. They over-reach themselves and veer off the course of the subject of immediate concern.President of the Senate, Godswill Akpabio who was also at the thanksgiving used the opportunity to canvas for the election of an *Ogoni* governor in the 2027 polls. This, he observed, is necessary to acknowledge the place of the *Ogoni* nationality in the nation’s socioeconomic life. Once he got a grip of the microphone, however, Wike alluded to his privileged position as a member of the PDP serving in a government led by the All Progressives Congress, (APC), as availing him the opportunity to get both sides to return Tinubu in 2027. “See as we are today,” Wike blurted. “If we all come together, who can defeat us in 2027? Nobody,” he answered himself.

A video clip which trended on the social media last year, showed Wike singing and marching to the now famous Tinubu anthem, “On Your Mandate We Shall Stand,” in the office of the Chief of Staff to the President, Femi Gbajabiamila. Ever since, the talk of Tinubu’s reelection in 2027, has dominated national discourse. Major APC bigwigs notably the party’s national chairman, Abdullahi Ganduje and the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, (SGF), George Akume, have intoned at various fora, that “there’s no vacancy in Aso Villa, come 2027.” Governor of Akwa Ibom State, Umo Eno, declared at the flag-off of the segment of the Lagos- Calabar super highway, that he and his constituents would support “Baba,” in reference to Tinubu, for a second term. Days after, Delta State Governor, Sheriff Oborevwori, his predecessor, Ifeanyi Arthur Okowa, and the entire PDP pyramid in the state, defected to the APC, all in a calculated move to back Tinubu’s second term. Such is the fever-pitch craze to determine the 2027 presidential election, two clear years before the expiration of his subsisting tenancy in the State House.

Nigeria, meanwhile, has transmogrified into a sprawling landmass of ungoverned spaces, a testament to the near absence of conscientious administration. Whereas the *Boko Haram* scourge which has festered in the nation’s North East was the deadliest security scourge, new terrorist groups have taken position in other parts of the country. The *Lakurawa,* an armed group reportedly affiliated with extremist organisations operating in the Sahel region, especially in Mali and Niger, have made incursions into the North West, notably in Sokoto and Kebbi states. A previously little-known *Mahmuda* group is digging in in Nigeria’s North Central, notably in Niger and Kwara states. Borgu local government area in Niger, and Kaiama and Baruten local government areas in Kwara, have been the worst afflicted in recent weeks. About two dozen people were recently killed by members of the sect, around the Kainji Lake National Park area in Kwara State. Plateau and Benue states, also in Nigeria’s North Central, have lost no less than 350 people in recent attacks by marauding herdsmen and cold-blooded criminals. Benue alone is estimated to have lost at least 250 people. The calibre of weapons and ammunitions deployed in these attacks transcend familiar armaments as deciphered from the profiles of expended shells found at various theatres of ruination.

Whole communities have been sacked in instances by these terrorists, their lives and affairs disrupted. The populations seeking refuge in inconvenient camps for internally displaced persons, (IDPs), in Benue for instance, continue to swell. The hitherto recessed and serene Bunu district in Kabba-Bunu/Ijumu federal constituency has been at the receiving end of the antics of criminal voyeurs who abduct, attack and maim innocent rural folk. Pressures by well-meaning constituents of the area has gingered the Nigerian Army’s recent approval of a Forward Operating Base, (FOB), to be stationed in the area to secure lives and property. A far-sighted Sunday Karimi, the Senator representing Kogi West zone had last October, delivered a fully built and kitted FOB in Egbe, Yagba West local government area, to the military to help deploy in the containment of insecurity in that part of the state.

A recent report by *The Sun* newspapers suggests that almost 600 people have been massacred by herdsmen, bandits and free-style killers within the last six months. The report indeed captures figures of casualties in Nasarawa, which is put at over 100, and Kogi states, where about 60 lives have been wasted. Both states complete the six in the the North Central which effectively surmises that the whole of the zone is at the mercy of criminal bloodhounds.Sadly, in several instances, the nation’s military, intelligence and security forces have been blamed for their laissez-faire attitude in nipping internal security threats in the bud. The military high command has indeed been fingered in instances, for the unnecessary politicisation of personnel deployment at the various theatres of operation. One often cited example is the recall, years ago, of Anthony Mayowa Atolagbe, a highly professional Major General who was erstwhile Field Commander of the Joint Task Force, (CJTF), overseeing the *Operation Safe Haven.* Atolagbe, a veteran of international military operations, very ably led an uncanny amalgam of land, maritime and air forces, as well as police, civil defence and prison personnel on the frontlines of Plateau, Kaduna and Niger states. Atolagbe’s ruthless efficiency was said to have angered certain interests who subtly canvassed his recall and redeployment. This was at a time he was on the verge of total clearance of troubled territories under his command.

Notable figures in Nigeria’s military and intelligence ecosystem have repeatedly admonished Nigerians to rise up to defend themselves. Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma, a former Chief of Army Staff, (COAS) and Defence Minister respectively, speaking at the convocation ceremony of the Taraba State University in Jalingo in 2018, advised his kinsmen to rise up in self defence. The Nigerian state, he warned, is incapable of guaranteeing the security of its citizens. Days ago at an event in Takum his hometown also in Taraba State, Danjuma re-echoed his advisory of seven years ago. Nigeria’s longest-serving President of the Senate thus far who is also a retired Army General, David Alechenu Mark, recently challenged Nigerians to rise up to be counted in the fight against banditry, kidnapping and killings. He was reacting to recent incidents of unprovoked attacks of his constituents by faceless gunmen. Mark, by the way was a military governor and minister respectively, under Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, an Army General, during Nigeria’s years of military rulership.Minority Leader of the Senate and successor to Mark, Patrick Abba Moro equally opined recently, that locals in places may be compelled to recourse to self-help in the face of government’s powerlessness in protecting lives and property. Adeola Oluwatosin Ajayi, Director-General of the Department of State Services, (DSS), said as much at a recent lecture hosted by the Institute for Security Studies, (ISS), Abuja. He alluded to his entreaties to his kinsmen back home in Ogun State, to do their bit in self-protection and not to be wholly dependent on government.

Such is the despairing reality of the security situation across the country. All of these are happening when Nigeria’s leaders at various levels of the governance pyramid, have appropriated sizeable proportions of security personnel to themselves for their personal protection, the mass of the people abandoned to their whims. One cannot but feel nostalgic about those years when governance was serious business, even in a multiparty democracy. President Olusegun Obasanjo never discussed his desire to run for a second term until three years into his first term. Indeed, as many political appointees as desired to vie for elective office, Obasanjo approved of their prompt disengagement from their briefs. He forbade the impairment of governance by the political distractions among his aides. That prototype of administrative discipline has since been lost to the overarching selfishness, vandalistic consumptiveness, voluptuous avarice and competitive nepotism of the contemporary political class.

Politics has effectively been professionalised in Nigeria. Nyesom Wike, would in 2027, for instance, have grossed 28 years of active “political service” at the expense of taxpayer’s monies, starting from his days as chairman of Obio-Akpor local government area in Rivers State at the onset of the Fourth Republic in 1999.Left to a Wike, the Independent National Electoral Commission, (INEC), should by now have written, signed and presented the Certificate of Return, (C-of-R) for the 2027 presidential election to his Principal. He is that obsessed, restless and impatient, bothering on delirium, about this subject. Let’s hope 2027 doesn’t come with cataclysmic accompaniments like Okigbo’s *Come Thunder,* with the way that all-important year is being courted and beckoned upon by preemptive agents of state. They seem totally oblivious of the fact that they are unwittingly stoking the flames and fires of future mammoth conflagration, courtesy of their actions and inactions today. They play God by their boastful arrogance and haughty utterances. Please come quick, 2027.

*Tunde Olusunle, PhD, Fellow of the Association of Nigerian Authors, (FANA), teaches Creative Writing at the University of Abuja*

Farooq Kperogi: In 2027, Tinubu won’t win; the opposition will lose

If economic health, social vitality, and the raw pulse of public opinion were the only indicators relied upon to prognosticate the chances of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s reelection in 2027, I would say with cocksure certitude that he is condemned to be a one-term president. Not even the most hopelessly unthinking defenders of the Tinubu presidency can deny that his reign so far has been defined by unrelieved economic hardship, staggering inflation, a collapsing naira, and a deepening sense of despair among Nigerians. In other words, the objective conditions for his political repudiation are overripe.

Nonetheless, elections, especially in Nigeria, are not won on the basis of public frustration alone. They are won — or lost — on the strength of political organization, elite consensus, strategic emotional manipulation, and the ability to convert popular anger into electoral mathematics. Call those the subjective conditions of electoral triumph, if you like. And this is where the tragedy of the opposition begins.The opposition is undisciplined, hopelessly spineless, irredeemably fragmented, strategically bankrupt, and is falling cheaply into the trap set for it by Tinubu.

First, the opposition is shaping up to be disappointingly provincial. It is dominated by elements from a slice of the North that seems to be suffering from withdrawal symptoms from loss of political power. This is reminiscent of the narrow-minded opposition to former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s second term, which helped him to create a coalition of southern Nigerian, Christian northerners, along with portions of the North that felt excluded from the regional mainstream.Perhaps the most egregious expression of naïve, historically inaccurate, self-sabotaging provincial self-importance from the region came five days ago from Dr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, a former appointee of the Tinubu administration who, before his sojourn in the administration, was a higher-up at the Northern Elders’ Forum.

In the next six months, the North will decide where it stands,” Dr. Baba-Ahmed said in a viral post. “If the rest of the country wants to join us, fine. If not, we will go our own way. One thing is clear: nobody can become president of Nigeria without northern support.”Well, Olusegun Obasanjo was elected for a second term in 2003 without “northern” support. I inserted scare quotes around “northern” because, although Baba-Hakeem appeared to be ecumenical in his conception of the North (he referenced “Muslims, Christians, Fulani, Baju, Mangu” — the Baju and Mangu being ethnic groups from southern Kaduna and Plateau — indicating pan-Northernism), we all know that the North has never been a monolith and is often riven by religion.

When people like Baba-Ahmed talk of the “North” in such tyrannizing, self-aggrandizing terms, they often mean a particular part of the North.Obasanjo deployed the perks of incumbency to mobilize the entire South, appeal to the Christian North, and to make offers to parts of the Muslim North that Muhammadu Buhari didn’t consider “northern” enough to deserve his electoral entreaties. Even if the election wasn’t rigged, Buhari didn’t stand a ghost of a chance of winning the 2003 election.Former President Goodluck Jonathan used Obasanjo’s 2003 template in 2011 to defeat Muhammadu Buhari. But in 2015, Jonathan lost the Southwest to Buhari, which led to Jonathan’s loss and Buhari’s epochal, unexampled triumph.

This shows that no region can win a national election without the other, making Baba-Hakeem’s self-lionizing boast a rhetorical gift to Bola Tinubu. We’re already seeing its effect.Several southerners who are wriggling in the torment of Tinubu’s economic policies have chosen to rather live with the sting of his policies than embrace the provincial arrogance of people like Baba-Ahmed who arrogate to themselves the exclusive power to determine who is president and who isn’t.Similarly, in Nigeria’s informal power-sharing arrangement, the expectation is that after eight years of a northern presidency that ended in 2023, no northerner should be president again for the next eight years. But the northern opposition to Tinubu seems to be anchored on a desire for premature power grab back to the North.

Unless the northern politicians who have stuck out their necks to oppose Tinubu support another southerner with widespread appeal, their opposition will only strengthen Tinubu’s southern coalition and buy him sympathy from parts of the north that don’t enjoy regional political hegemony.This is particularly so because since the start of the Fourth Republic, the South has never expressed opposition to northern presidencies by sponsoring southern candidates. The South supported Atiku Abubakar, a northerner, in 2019. Umar Musa Yar’adua’s main opponent in 2007 wasn’t a southerner. It was Muhammadu Buhari, a northerner.But when it was the South’s turn to get presidential power in 2023, the North presented a formidable candidate in the PDP. In fact, the APC hierarchy, with the support of Muhammadu Buhari, settled on former Senate President Ahmad Lawan as the “consensus candidate.” That was embarrassing. Already, there are insinuations that PDP governors who are defecting to APC are doing so not just because they are being bludgeoned into it through subtle EFCC prosecutorial threats but also because they fear that their party’s standard-bearer in 2027 will be a northerner.I understand the dilemma of the northern politicians in opposition. Should they support a southern candidate to dislodge Tinubu, such a candidate would, as sure as tomorrow’s date, seek a second term. That would defer the presidential aspirations of the northern politicians by eight years instead of four.If they sit by listlessly as Tinubu shoves them to the margins of the orbit of power, they will be like fish flailing out of water. They will be so disoriented and weakened that by the time presidential power drifts back to the North, they probably won’t even have the strength to fight for a place.Northern opposition politicians like Nasir El-Rufai also don’t seem to realize that the Social Democratic Party (SDP) they have embraced as the vehicle to displace Tinubu is, in fact, Tinubu’s spare car.It is fully fueled, tuned, and parked in his garage for contingencies. As early as April 2022, BusinessDay reported that Tinubu had opened backchannel talks with the SDP and explored it as a fallback platform in case his APC ambitions stalled. In other words, the opposition is not commandeering an independent vehicle; they are clambering into a car whose engine hums to Tinubu’s touch and whose keys he can reclaim at will. They are, quite literally, riding shotgun in a machine built for their defeat. Unfortunately, he has also hijacked their car, the PDP!

Adewole Adebayo, SDP’s 2023 presidential candidate, unintentionally echoed this sentiment a few days ago when he used the metaphor of a car to send a not-so-subtle dig at El-Rufai.“As for the coalition, we’re listening to them,” Adebayo said. “What we don’t want to be—we don’t want to be a get-away car for a conspiracy and robbery we did not plan. So, if you planned something somewhere and you want to use the SDP as a get-away car, that’s not available.” Adebayo added another pointed dart to El-Rufai when he said, “if the coalition is a crying center for disappointed Tinubu followers, they should go back to Tinubu who gave the promise to them and resolve their differences there.”In the end, Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s greatest electoral asset may not be the loyalty of the masses, the success of his policies, or even the cunning of his political machinery. It may well be the disarray, hubris, provincialism, and strategic myopia of his opposition.They are too divided to form a coalition, too impatient to build trust across regions, and too blinded by immediate resentments to think in terms of long-term electoral triumph.In 2027, Tinubu may stagger into a second term not because he inspires, but because he survives; not because he triumphs, but because those who should have dethroned him will, through a toxic mix of arrogance and amateurism, hand him victory on a silver platter.It won’t be Tinubu who wins; it will be the opposition that loses. And Nigeria, trapped in the wreckage of broken possibilities, will pay the price.

Farooq Kperogi is a renowned Nigerian columnist and United States-based Professor of Journalism.