By Ayo Oyoze Baje
Quote:
“Acquisition of arms has become synonymous with possessing voter’s card… The worst scenario of electoral violence is the surge in arms proliferations.” – Gani Yoroms, Researcher on Electoral Violence
“Arms, arms everywhere” was the recent alarm raised by
the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Lieutenant General Waidi Shaibu, which was featured, literally screaming as the news headline of several newspapers.
Incidentally, it
echoes a similar concern raised by yours truly in November, 2025 via an article titled: ” Arms Proliferation and the Dangers Ahead”. Before then was the one that came from the former military head of state, Gen. Abdulsalam Abubakar (rtd). Speaking in his capacity then as the chairman of the National Peace Committee, he estimated that over six million illegal weapons were in circulation across the country. He noted that this influx of weapons heavily fueled banditry and insurgency, directly contributing to over 80,000 deaths and the displacement of three million people. He had also previously warned about rising weapon stockpiles in the country late in 2018.
Unfortunately, the scary situation has worsened over the years.
According to Shaibu,
“there are arms everywhere” in Nigeria, revealing the influx and circulation of illegal weapons acting as catalysts as a massive driver of insecurity in the country. Obviously,
these weapons fuel violent crimes such as kidnapping, banditry, and terrorism across the country. it also poses potential threats to the conduct of peaceful elections come 2027.
In fact, the recurring ugly decimal of the self-decimating and life-wasting menace of arms proliferation deserves our collective attention and more so, how to find lasting solutions to it at this testy and trying time of escalating insecurity ahead of the 2027 general elections. And with the dire desperation of the political actors to hang on to power, or grab and run away with it by all means possible through sordid
gimmicks and gambits, all concerned hands must be on deck. The aim of course, is to save our ship of state from galloping into the stormy waters.
This is of serious concern because though there is no exact, real-time figure for the number of illegal firearms in Nigeria,official and intelligence estimates range from 6 million to 200 million circulating across the country. Intelligence Estimates: Regional intelligence from the UN Regional Centre for Peace and Disarmament in Africa
estimate that up to 200 million illegal small arms and light weapons (SALW) are in circulation in Nigeria, representing about 80% of those in West Africa.
According to SBM Security Report,
the number of small arms in circulation in Nigeria, in the hands of civilian non-state actors is estimated at 6,145,000, while the armed forces and law enforcement collectively account for 586,600 firearms
The proliferation is exacerbated by smuggling, local artisanal manufacturing, and weapons unaccounted for by state armouries. For example, a previous audit revealed the Nigeria Police Force could not account for over 178,000 firearms.
To combat this, the Nigeria Police Force and the NCCSALW routinely run operations to recover, decommission, and destroy thousands of illicit weapons.
Though the military and police attribute the arms proliferation to three main factors such as armoury leakages: porous borders and trafficking of arms from the Sahel and the Chad Basin down south to both the North East and North Western zones of the country,
the evidences on ground point to the lack of success in reining
in the forces behind the proliferation.
On the part of the government and law enforcement agencies they raised alarms that a significant proportion of the illegal arms in circulation originally slipped from legitimate state stockpiles due to weak armory oversight.
As at November 2025 Nigeria accounted for 70% of 11 million illegal arms and light weapons in West Africa, as made available by the National Center for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons (NCCSALW).
The consequences are dire, including those whose heinous crimes against humanity have made it possible for the United States President Donald Trump to accuse Nigeria of “Christian Genocide” and tag it a Country of Particular Concern (CPC). Amongst them are the Boko Haram, ISWAP, bandits, armed Fulani herders, kidnappers, Lakurawa and the new Mahmuda insurgents who keep unleashing horror and havoc on their defenceless victims. That is so in the mineral-rich states of as Zamfara and Plateau in addition to the fertile fields of Benue, Kwara, Oyo and Ondo.
The fact that illegal arms dealings are largely responsible for Nigeria’s 2.2 million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and 26,000 refugees in neighboring countries, as revealed by Mr. Alex Ebimiebo, the South- South Zonal Director of the NCCSALW is disturbing.
He added that arms proliferation has also led to economic distortions, an increase in violence, crime, and impediment to peacebuilding. He was the man who raised alarm over Nigeria accounting for 70 per cent of illegal arms in the Subregion.
Illegal weapons are also made available to the IPOB members in the South – East geo-political zone, and the oil thieves in the oil-rich Niger-Delta, South-South zone. But what really are the factors that have fuelled their proliferation and use?
With the Chief of Defence Staff noting that West Africa holds over 500 million illegal arms, about 40% of which are in Nigeria is of serious concern. This widespread availability of weapons continues to fuel the activities of non-state actors.
With regards to the porous borders, despite intensified controls, illegal weapons are frequently moved through unmonitored land borders and ports.But of concern are the sustainable solutions to illegal arms circulation across the country.
To address this, security forces have launched operations to intercept these arms supply routes, while the National Centre for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons (NCCSALW) has been actively training personnel to strengthen armoury security and recover illicit weapons.
In terms of solutions, we need to involve the whole society in this fight against the challenge of arms proliferation. Since the NCCSALW center has a lot of programmes for collaboration with sister agencies, with advocacy and sensitisation programmes members of the general public should be frequently enlightened As Oludude highlighted, there should be inter-agency collaboration to tackle the proliferation of arms because no single agency, regardless of its resources or dedication, could effectively tackle the complex challenge alone.
Of significance, is the need for the government to continue to invest in training, technology, and intelligence gathering. All of these will boost the capability of the security agencies to do away with illegal arms and ammunition. That is as rightly suggested by the Flag Officer Commanding (FOC) of the Eastern Naval Command, Rear Adm. Kennedy Ezete.
On the way forward, yours truly advocates for enhanced intelligence gathering, a robust arms mop-up by security agencies, socio-economic reforms to alleviate joblessness and poverty, and the prosecution of political figures who use arms and thuggery to rig elections. Prevention will be better than cure.
